Viewing archive of Monday, 7 September 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Sep 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 250 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Sep 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (08
Sep, 09 Sep, 10 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 679 km/s at 07/1408Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 07/1332Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 07/1501Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2559
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (08 Sep), quiet to
active levels on day two (09 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (10 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Sep to 10 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Sep 084 Predicted 08 Sep-10 Sep 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 07 Sep 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Sep 012/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Sep 025/043 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Sep-10 Sep 022/026-011/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Sep to 10 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 30% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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