Viewing archive of Thursday, 10 September 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2015 Sep 10 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
10 Sep 2015	081	014
11 Sep 2015	080	020
12 Sep 2015	078	010

Bulletin

Only four small sunspot groups are presently visible on the solar disc. The flaring activity is on the B-class level and we expect it to remain so in the following 24 hours. No Earth directed CMEs were observed during last 24 hours.

The solar wind speed is currently 430 km/s, and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is about 9 nT. The long interval of the negative value of the Bz component (down to -8 nT) and at that moment still high solar wind speed (about 430 km/s) induced geomagnetic storm conditions lasting from about 18 UT yesterday until 03 UT today, NOAA reported Kp=6 and local station Dourbes reported K=5. The fast flow, associated with the elongated equatorial coronal hole (20S to 20N) which crossed central meridian in the morning of September 08, is expected late this evening or tomorrow morning. Additionally, the fast flow from the low latitude extension of the northern polar coronal hole which crossed the central meridian yesterday morning is expected late on September 11 or in the morning of September 12. Currently the geomagnetic conditions are quiet and we expected these conditions to persist in the coming hours. However, arrival of the fast flow can induced active to geomagnetic storm conditions later today and tomorrow morning.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 044, based on 19 stations.

Solar indices for 09 Sep 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	082
AK Chambon La Forêt	064
AK Wingst	051
Estimated Ap	053
Estimated international sunspot number	046 - Based on 25 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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