Viewing archive of Friday, 11 September 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Sep 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 254 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Sep 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (12 Sep, 13 Sep, 14 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to severe storm levels for the past 24
hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a
peak speed of 674 km/s at 11/1132Z. Total IMF reached 18 nT at 11/0731Z.
The maximum southward component of Bz reached -16 nT at 11/0731Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 1274 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to major storm levels on day one (12 Sep), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (13 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day
three (14 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Sep to 14 Sep
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Sep 093 Predicted 12 Sep-14 Sep 100/105/110 90 Day Mean 11 Sep 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Sep 010/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Sep 036/061 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Sep-14 Sep 028/040-019/025-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Sep to 14 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 70% | 50% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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