Viewing archive of Thursday, 17 September 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Sep 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 260 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Sep 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
17/0940Z from Region 2415 (S20W16). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Sep, 19 Sep,
20 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
535 km/s at 17/0729Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 17/1820Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 16/2300Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6939 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (18 Sep) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (19 Sep, 20 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Sep to 20 Sep
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Sep 107 Predicted 18 Sep-20 Sep 110/110/110 90 Day Mean 17 Sep 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Sep 009/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Sep 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Sep-20 Sep 009/008-009/012-014/016
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Sep to 20 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 35% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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