Viewing archive of Thursday, 1 October 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Oct 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Oct 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
01/1310Z from Region 2422 (S17W69). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on day one (02 Oct) and likely to be
moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day two (03 Oct)
and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight
chance for an X-class flare on day three (04 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
380 km/s at 01/1719Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 01/1452Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 01/1644Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 641 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one, two, and three (02
Oct, 03 Oct, 04 Oct). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (02 Oct, 03 Oct, 04 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Oct to 04 Oct
| Class M | 70% | 65% | 50% |
| Class X | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Proton | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Oct 120 Predicted 02 Oct-04 Oct 120/115/105 90 Day Mean 01 Oct 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Sep 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Oct 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct 016/024-016/028-025/040
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Oct to 04 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 50% | 65% |
All times in UTC
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