Viewing archive of Thursday, 8 October 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2015 Oct 08 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Major magstorm expected (A>=50 or K>=6)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
08 Oct 2015	081	043
09 Oct 2015	080	034
10 Oct 2015	078	051

Bulletin

Solar activity remains very low, no C-class flares in past 24h. The situation is not expected to change. A filament erupted close to the western solar limb (located at ~S20W70) and produced a CME, first seen by LASCO-C2 on 7 October 07:36 UT. It had an angular width around 100 degrees and speeds of 400 km/s. The CME is directed towards the west. A possible encounter with the Earth is not likely, but remains possible (on October 10).

The Earth is still under the influence of the fast solar wind from an equatorial coronal hole. The elevated speed of this solar wind stream (peaked slightly above 800 km/s), together with elevated interplanetary magnetic field (peaking around 25 nT with long southward excursions) have created geomagnetic storm conditions since very early on October 7 until now. Kp has reached 7 and the local K at Dourbes went up to 6. At present the solar wind speed is still elevated (750 km/s) and although the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude has decreased to 5 nT, more storm periods can be expected in the coming 24 h. There is yet another coronal hole at the Sun, in the northern hemisphere. Due to its irregular shape and distribution in latitude it is difficult to estimate a single arrival time for the fast solar wind. Its westernmost part may influence Earth in 24 to 48 h (although this region is at high latitude, 30 degrees north, so it may not arrive to the Earth). The solar wind from the coronal hole’s southernmost part (20 degrees north) will most likely come to the Earth in 72h. Therefore, more storms are expected in the coming days, possibly up to major storm levels.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 038, based on 15 stations.

Solar indices for 07 Oct 2015

Wolf number Catania	038
10cm solar flux	081
AK Chambon La Forêt	089
AK Wingst	060
Estimated Ap	070
Estimated international sunspot number	032 - Based on 15 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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