Viewing archive of Friday, 16 October 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Oct 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
15/2331Z from Region 2434 (S10E34). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate on
days one, two, and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct, 19 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
470 km/s at 15/2303Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 15/2113Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 15/2228Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2472 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (17 Oct,
18 Oct, 19 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Oct to 19 Oct
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Oct 109 Predicted 17 Oct-19 Oct 115/120/120 90 Day Mean 16 Oct 101
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct 009/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct 009/010-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct to 19 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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