Viewing archive of Friday, 30 October 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2015 Oct 30 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	10cm flux	Ap
30 Oct 2015	113	011
31 Oct 2015	111	010
01 Nov 2015	111	007

Bulletin

Solar activity was low but increasing. The strongest flare was a C5.5 flare peaking at 8:41UT from at or around the NorthWest limb (near NOAA region 2436). Several other low class C flares were reported from Catania group 62 (NOAA 2443) in the East which remains the most prominent region on disk. Flaring is expected to continue at C level with also a chance for M flares. Two filaments lifted off the Southern hemisphere yesterday. The first around 9:27UT from the SouthEast which had corresponding signatures in LASCO C2 data showing a CME directed to the SouthEast and was limited in angular extent. The second lifted off around 14:42UT from the South near the central meridian but did not show any clear coronagraphic signatures. Hence, both are expected not to be geoeffective. Closer analysis of the CME reported yesterday, indicates that it did not originate from NOAA region 2437, but was backsided and hence no effects are expected on Earth. No other Earth directed CMEs have been recorded. The > 10MeV proton levels (which were elevated by yesterdays CME) decreased below the event threshold at the start of the period and continue to decline. The >50Mev and >100MeV were also in decline with the >100 MeV proton levels already recovered at background values. Solar wind speed was in the 310-350km/s range. Total magnetic field steadily increased over the period from around 4nT to around 10 nT with Bz fluctuating but not reaching below -6nT and currently positive. The phi angle was in the negative sector. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were recorded (local K Dourbes 0-2, NOAA Kp 0-3). Largely nominal solar wind conditions are expected to continue, though an expected sector boundary crossing could cause some perturbations and isolated periods of active geomagnetic conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 084, based on 16 stations.

Solar indices for 29 Oct 2015

Wolf number Catania	110
10cm solar flux	113
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	004
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	089 - Based on 26 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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