Viewing archive of Wednesday, 4 November 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Nov 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 308 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Nov 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
04/1352Z from Region 2443 (N06W09). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(05 Nov, 06 Nov, 07 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 770 km/s at 04/0405Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 04/0325Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 04/0444Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4404
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (05 Nov), quiet to
active levels on day two (06 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (07 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
day one (05 Nov) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days
two and three (06 Nov, 07 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Nov to 07 Nov
| Class M | 65% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Nov 114 Predicted 05 Nov-07 Nov 115/110/110 90 Day Mean 04 Nov 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Nov 023/028 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Nov 028/041 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov 014/015-010/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Nov to 07 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 30% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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