Viewing archive of Saturday, 21 November 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Nov 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
21/1324Z from Region 2454 (N13W40). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (22 Nov, 23 Nov, 24 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
441 km/s at 21/0139Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 20/2107Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 20/2252Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 200 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (22 Nov,
23 Nov, 24 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Nov to 24 Nov
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Nov 122 Predicted 22 Nov-24 Nov 120/120/115 90 Day Mean 21 Nov 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov 006/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Nov 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov 008/008-007/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov to 24 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/25 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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| Last 30 days | 158.7 +10.9 |