Viewing archive of Friday, 4 December 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2015 Dec 04 1234 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
04 Dec 2015	096	009
05 Dec 2015	097	012
06 Dec 2015	098	018

Bulletin

Solar activity has been low over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was a C1.0 class flare. Newly emerged NOAA Active Region (AR) 2463 (Hax Alpha) has produced the only C class flare in the past 24 hours, a C1.0 flare peaking at 05:34 UT. Previously active AR 2458 (Bxo Beta) has moved onto the West solar limb. There was a small eruption off of the East solar limb at 19:12 UT on 2015-Dec-03, it is not expected to interact with the Earth. This eruption was possibly related to AR 2463. No Earth directed CMEs have been observed in the past 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to be low, but AR 2463 has the potential to increase activity levels. The solar wind speed has fluctuated around 400 km /s over the past 24 hours. The total magnetic field strength has remained around 7 nT, and the Bz component has fluctuated between +5 and -5 nT. Geomagnetic conditions ranged between quiet and unsettled (NOAA Kp 0-3, local K Dourbes 0-3). The small eruption on 2015-Dec-01 may have enhanced solar wind parameters and geo-activity earlier today (Kp = 3). A large positive polar coronal hole (CH), with a section extending to low latitudes, is currently located near central solar longitudes, and may increase solar wind conditions and geo- activity early on 2015-Dec-06. The Solar wind parameters are expected to be around background levels until the CH high speed stream arrives in a couple of days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 033, based on 18 stations.

Solar indices for 03 Dec 2015

Wolf number Catania	049
10cm solar flux	095
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	003
Estimated Ap	002
Estimated international sunspot number	033 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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