Viewing archive of Tuesday, 15 December 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Dec 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 349 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Dec 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Dec,
17 Dec, 18 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 612 km/s at 15/0807Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 14/2104Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 14/2104Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 122
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (16 Dec) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (17 Dec, 18 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Dec to 18 Dec
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Dec 119 Predicted 16 Dec-18 Dec 120/120/125 90 Day Mean 15 Dec 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Dec 015/020 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Dec 015/017 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec 011/012-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Dec to 18 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 15% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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