Viewing archive of Monday, 21 December 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2015 Dec 21 1235 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
21 Dec 2015	126	021
22 Dec 2015	133	006
23 Dec 2015	138	005

Bulletin

An unnumbered sunspot group that just appeared at the east solar limb produced the most of the flaring activity in the past 24 hours, including 9 C-class flares and 2 M-class flares. The strongest one was the M2.8 flare peaking at 01:03 UT today. It was accompanied only with a narrow CME that will not arrive at the Earth. We expect more M-class flares from this group, with a small chance for an X-class event. The Earth is now inside the trailing part of the ICME that arrived after the interplanetary shock detected on December 19. Currently the solar wind speed is around 360 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude is around 17 nT. The north-south IMF component Bz just turned northward, so the geomagnetic storm conditions ended, with Dourbes reporting K = 3 and NOAA reporting Kp = 4 during the last interval. Unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are probable in the coming hours, with isolated intervals of minor storm possible (although unlikely) in case of Bz turning consistently southward again.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 017, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 20 Dec 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	117
AK Chambon La Forêt	106
AK Wingst	065
Estimated Ap	070
Estimated international sunspot number	019 - Based on 20 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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