Issued: 2015 Dec 24 1237 UTC
M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
Quiet
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
24 Dec 2015 | 137 | 016 |
25 Dec 2015 | 137 | 012 |
26 Dec 2015 | 137 | 006 |
NOAA ARs 2472 and 2473 (Catania numbers 4 and 5 respectively) have beta-gamma configuration of their photospheric magnetic field and continue to produce flaring activity. The strongest flare of the past 24 hours was a complex event early today, with the first peak at 02:12 UT (M1.1 in the NOAA AR 2473) and the second peak at 06:16 UT (C5.9 in the NOAA AR 2473 and a nearly simultaneous X-ray flux increase in NOAA AR 2472). The event was associated with a CME first visible in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 06:12 UT. The full angular width of the CME is not clear yet and will be further evaluated as more LASCO data will be available, although it is unlikely to be a halo CME. We expect C-class flaring in the next 24 hours, with around 50 percent chance for an M-class flare. The Earth is currently inside a solar wind flow with an intermediate speed (around 500 km/s). The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude has been slightly elevated (7-8 nT) in the recent hours, so mostly unsettled with occasionally active geomagnetic conditions were reported. We expect unsettled to possibly active geomagnetic conditions in the coming hours.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 058, based on 08 stations.
Wolf number Catania | 089 |
10cm solar flux | /// |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 020 |
AK Wingst | 016 |
Estimated Ap | 014 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 066 - Based on 18 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | End | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 | 0149 | 0212 | 0222 | ---- | M1.1 | --/---- |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
All times in UTC
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