Viewing archive of Thursday, 24 December 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2015 Dec 24 1237 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Valid from 1230 UTC, 24 Dec 2015 until 26 Dec 2015
Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

10cm fluxAp
24 Dec 2015137016
25 Dec 2015137012
26 Dec 2015137006

Bulletin

NOAA ARs 2472 and 2473 (Catania numbers 4 and 5 respectively) have beta-gamma configuration of their photospheric magnetic field and continue to produce flaring activity. The strongest flare of the past 24 hours was a complex event early today, with the first peak at 02:12 UT (M1.1 in the NOAA AR 2473) and the second peak at 06:16 UT (C5.9 in the NOAA AR 2473 and a nearly simultaneous X-ray flux increase in NOAA AR 2472). The event was associated with a CME first visible in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 06:12 UT. The full angular width of the CME is not clear yet and will be further evaluated as more LASCO data will be available, although it is unlikely to be a halo CME. We expect C-class flaring in the next 24 hours, with around 50 percent chance for an M-class flare. The Earth is currently inside a solar wind flow with an intermediate speed (around 500 km/s). The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude has been slightly elevated (7-8 nT) in the recent hours, so mostly unsettled with occasionally active geomagnetic conditions were reported. We expect unsettled to possibly active geomagnetic conditions in the coming hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 058, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 23 Dec 2015

Wolf number Catania089
10cm solar flux///
AK Chambon La Forêt020
AK Wingst016
Estimated Ap014
Estimated international sunspot number066 - Based on 18 stations

Noticeable events summary

DayBeginMaxEndLocStrengthOP10cmCatania/NOAARadio burst types
24014902120222----M1.1--/----

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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