Viewing archive of Monday, 8 February 2016

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Feb 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 39 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 08/0529Z from Region 2492 (N14W19). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Feb, 10 Feb, 11 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 466 km/s at 08/0757Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 08/0600Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 08/0349Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (09 Feb, 11 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (10 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Feb to 11 Feb
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Feb 115
  Predicted   09 Feb-11 Feb 115/115/115
  90 Day Mean        08 Feb 108

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb  006/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Feb  016/018
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb  012/018-008/008-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb to 11 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%15%25%
Minor storm10%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%15%
Minor storm30%30%25%
Major-severe storm40%20%35%

All times in UTC

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