Viewing archive of Sunday, 10 April 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Apr 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Apr 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
09/2255Z from Region 2529 (N10E54). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Apr,
12 Apr, 13 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 432 km/s at 10/2050Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 10/1306Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
10/0615Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (11 Apr, 12 Apr)
and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (13 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Apr to 13 Apr
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Apr 111 Predicted 11 Apr-13 Apr 112/112/112 90 Day Mean 10 Apr 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Apr 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Apr 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Apr-13 Apr 008/008-008/008-013/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Apr to 13 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 20% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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