Viewing archive of Sunday, 17 April 2016

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2016 Apr 17 1239 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
17 Apr 2016	115	013
18 Apr 2016	115	007
19 Apr 2016	115	007

Bulletin

In the past 24 hours, beta-gamma region NOAA AR 2529 produced 3 C flares. The brightest one was a C5.8 flare peaking at 19:58 UT on April 16, which was accompanied by a filament eruption and a CME. The CME was first detected on LASCO C2 images at 20:24 UT by CACTUS with an estimated plane- of-sky speed of 272 km/s. A glancing blow from this CME early on April 22 is not excluded, but seems unlikely. More C flares (probability 80%) are expected in the next 24 hours, with a chance (probability 25%) for an M flare, especially from AR 2529. In the past 24 hours, solar wind speed varied between about 370 and 480 km/s, with current values around 410 km/s. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) decreased from about 10 to 2 nT, with current values around 5 nT. Over the past 24 hours, geomagnetic conditions have been quiet to active (K Dourbes between 2 and 4; NOAA Kp between 2 and 4). Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on April 17 and the first half of April 18. Active to minor storm periods are possible in the second half of April 18 and on April 19, due to the expected arrival of a high speed stream associated with a positive coronal hole.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 036, based on 17 stations.

Solar indices for 16 Apr 2016

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	113
AK Chambon La Forêt	030
AK Wingst	014
Estimated Ap	014
Estimated international sunspot number	045 - Based on 23 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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