Viewing archive of Tuesday, 19 April 2016

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2016 Apr 19 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
19 Apr 2016	092	017
20 Apr 2016	090	019
21 Apr 2016	089	007

Bulletin

Solar weather conditions were quiet with X-ray flux remaining below C level. Both regions on disk (Catania groups 54 an 59, NOAA Active region 2529 and 2532 respectively) produced only some minor B flares. The biggest and most complex of those regions, Catania group 54, seems to reduce and simplify as it approaches the West limb. While it does so, flaring at C level is quite probable and there remains a chance for an M flare, but both probabilities are expected to further decrease. The proton levels have returned to background levels after yesterdays slight increase in response to the westbound CME. No proton events are expected though they can not be excluded while Catania group 54 approaches the West limb. No Earth directed CME's have been recorded in coronagraph data.

Solar wind conditions were fairly nominal. Solar wind speed was in the 350-400 km/s range with a generally decreasing trend. Total magnetic field strength decreased from 8nT to around 5nT with Bz mainly positive. The magnetic field phi angle was in the positive sector. More than a day into the positive sector there is yet no sign of an expected possible influence of a high speed stream from the northern coronal hole. An increase in solar wind conditions under this influence is still possible but becomes less likely and may be rather weak. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet (local K Dourbes 0-2, NOAA Kp 0-1). Some episodes of active geomagnetic conditions may be possible in the next 24 hours if solar wind conditions become enhanced under the possible influence of the northern coronal hole. Otherwise quiet to unsettled conditions are expected.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 029, based on 20 stations.

Solar indices for 18 Apr 2016

Wolf number Catania	044
10cm solar flux	095
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	005
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	032 - Based on 33 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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