Viewing archive of Wednesday, 27 April 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Apr 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 118 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Apr 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Apr,
29 Apr, 30 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 505 km/s at 27/1312Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 27/0211Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
27/0350Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 349 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (28 Apr), quiet to active
levels on day two (29 Apr) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day
three (30 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Apr to 30 Apr
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Apr 093 Predicted 28 Apr-30 Apr 095/093/093 90 Day Mean 27 Apr 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Apr 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Apr 009/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Apr-30 Apr 009/008-012/014-018/026
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Apr to 30 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 60% | 55% |
All times in UTC
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