Viewing archive of Monday, 23 May 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 May 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 144 Issued at 2200Z on 23 May 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 May,
25 May, 26 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 618 km/s at 23/0044Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
23/2054Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
23/0651Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 516 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (24 May), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (25 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (26 May).
III. Event Probabilities 24 May to 26 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 May 097 Predicted 24 May-26 May 098/098/095 90 Day Mean 23 May 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 May 005/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 May 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 May-26 May 005/005-007/008-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 May to 26 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 20% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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