Viewing archive of Monday, 30 May 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 May 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 151 Issued at 2200Z on 30 May 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
30/0737Z from Region 2550 (N15W31). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low on day
one (31 May) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class
flares on days two and three (01 Jun, 02 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 601 km/s at 30/0451Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 29/2318Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
29/2300Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1088 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (31 May) and quiet levels
on days two and three (01 Jun, 02 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 31 May to 02 Jun
| Class M | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 May 086 Predicted 31 May-02 Jun 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 30 May 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 May 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 May 013/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 May-02 Jun 009/010-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 May to 02 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 20% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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