Viewing archive of Wednesday, 15 June 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Jun 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 167 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jun 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (16
Jun, 17 Jun, 18 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 772 km/s at 15/0410Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 14/2119Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 14/2145Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 215 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (16 Jun), quiet to
active levels on day two (17 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (18 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jun to 18 Jun
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jun 087 Predicted 16 Jun-18 Jun 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 15 Jun 091
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun 015/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jun 013/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun 014/018-011/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun to 18 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 35% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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