Viewing archive of Tuesday, 12 July 2016

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2016 Jul 12 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
12 Jul 2016	095	023
13 Jul 2016	094	009
14 Jul 2016	095	015

Bulletin

Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been low. The largest flare was a B9.4 class flare. Active Region (AR) 2564 (Macintosh class:Dao; Mag. type:Beta) produced the largest flare, the B9.4 class flare peaking at 21:33 UT yesterday, the region has shown some evidence of flux emergence in HMI magnetogram observations, but appears stable, this region may increase flaring activity. All other regions appeared stable. No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected. Solar protons have remained at background levels over the past 24 hours. There is currently a large +ve polarity trans-equatorial northern polar coronal hole moving into the Western hemisphere. Solar activity is expected to remain low over the next 24 hours, with a reasonable probability of C-class flares and a low probability of M-class flares. The solar wind speed has increased from around 500 to 600 km/s over the past 24 hours. The total magnetic field strength has fluctuated around 5 nT, but peaked around 9 nT at 08:00 UT this morning. The Bz component fluctuated around 0 nT, but has been largely -ve this morning ranging between -9 and +5 nT. Geomagnetic conditions ranged between Kp index 2-5 (NOAA) and local K index 2-4 (Dourbes) over the past 24 hours. The largely negative Bz experienced this morning combined with the increasing solar wind speed produced Kp 5 conditions, this resulted from a small high speed stream (HSS). The Kp is expected to drop over the next few hours as we move out of the HSS. However, the large northern polar coronal hole moving into the Western hemisphere may increase solar wind speeds again, if coupled with negative Bz we may experience further enhanced geomagnetic activity over the next few days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 061, based on 21 stations.

Solar indices for 11 Jul 2016

Wolf number Catania	079
10cm solar flux	095
AK Chambon La Forêt	023
AK Wingst	014
Estimated Ap	013
Estimated international sunspot number	064 - Based on 34 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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