Viewing archive of Sunday, 17 July 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Jul 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 199 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jul 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
17/0803Z from Region 2567 (N05E02). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (18 Jul,
19 Jul, 20 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 545 km/s at 17/0155Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
17/2042Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
17/1234Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 5512 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (18 Jul), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (19 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day three (20 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Jul to 20 Jul
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jul 105 Predicted 18 Jul-20 Jul 105/105/105 90 Day Mean 17 Jul 087
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jul 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jul 007/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jul-20 Jul 006/005-007/008-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jul to 20 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 20% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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