Viewing archive of Tuesday, 16 August 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Aug 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 229 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Aug 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (17 Aug, 18 Aug)
and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on
day three (19 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 351 km/s at 16/2032Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at
16/2018Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at
16/2018Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 6711 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (17 Aug, 19 Aug)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (18 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Aug to 19 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Aug 087 Predicted 17 Aug-19 Aug 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 16 Aug 086
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Aug 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Aug 006/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug 009/006-007/008-009/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Aug to 19 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 05% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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