Viewing archive of Tuesday, 11 October 2016

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2016 Oct 11 1237 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
11 Oct 2016	103	006
12 Oct 2016	103	007
13 Oct 2016	103	007

Bulletin

Quiet solar conditions were recorded with X-ray flux remaining below C level and just a couple of minor B-flares occurring. All regions on disk appear stable or in decay while a new region is rotating on disk in the North-East (Catania group 46, NOAA unnumbered). Quiet conditions are expected with a chance for a C flare occurrence. Solar proton flux levels were at background levels and expected to remain so. SoHO/LASCO coronagraph images show a CME onset from around 10:00UT October 10 onwards. The ejection is primarily Southward with an angular extent of around 150 degrees. The event is backsided and will hence not be geoeffective. No other significant CME onsets were recorded.

Solar wind conditions were nominal with solar wind speed increasing slightly from around 360 to around 400 km/s. Total magnetic field was in the 4-8.5nT range with a variable North South component. The magnetic field phi angle turned into the negative sector around 18:00UT. Solar wind conditions are expected to remain nominal with later on October 13 the possible passage of the October 9 CME which should only involve a small velocity increase, but may be accompanied with magnetic field perturbations. Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet to active (local K Dourbes 0-4, NOAA Kp 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain quiet to unsettled with later on October 13 possibly minor to moderate geomagnetic storm levels associated with the possible CME arrival.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 067, based on 15 stations.

Solar indices for 10 Oct 2016

Wolf number Catania	097
10cm solar flux	102
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	013
Estimated Ap	013
Estimated international sunspot number	071 - Based on 29 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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