Viewing archive of Friday, 14 October 2016

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2016 Oct 14 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
14 Oct 2016	094	018
15 Oct 2016	094	017
16 Oct 2016	094	015

Bulletin

Solar activity was low, with X-ray flux at background levels apart from a single C flare from a region around the East limb peaking at C1.3 level at 21:05UT. Flux emergence is seen in the leading part of Catania group 47 (NOAA 2602) while Catania group 42 (NOAA 2599) seems stable or in decay. Solar X-ray flux is expected to remain at background levels while an isolated C may be possible. Solar proton fluxes are at background levels and expected to remain so. No Earth directed CME's have been observed in coronagraph data.

Solar wind conditions were dominated by the passage of the October 9 CME. Following the arrival yesterday wind speed saw a steady decline over the past 24 hours from 420 km/s to 360 km/s. But total magnetic field initially continued to rise steadily from 20nT to a peak of close to 25nT overnight before declining steadily to present values of 16nT. The strongly negative North South component of the magnetic field also persisted over an extended time period, reaching a magnitude of -21nT and then starting around midnight a gentle transition towards current positive values. Solar wind conditions should continue their recovery to nominal parameter values although slightly enhanced conditions may persist due to the influence of some negative polarity coronal holes. In response to the extended period of strongly negative Bz, moderate geomagnetic storm levels were recorded at planetary level (NOAA Kp 6) throughout yesterday afternoon and into today, while local geomagnetic conditions remained at minor storm levels (local K Dourbes 5). As solar wind parameters return to nominal, geomagnetic conditions should remain quiet to unsettled over the next days, although an isolated active period can not be excluded.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 043, based on 10 stations.

Solar indices for 13 Oct 2016

Wolf number Catania	051
10cm solar flux	095
AK Chambon La Forêt	072
AK Wingst	046
Estimated Ap	044
Estimated international sunspot number	044 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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