Viewing archive of Sunday, 6 November 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Nov 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Nov 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (07
Nov, 08 Nov, 09 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 333 km/s at 06/0535Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
06/0752Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
06/0454Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3163 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (07 Nov, 09
Nov) and unsettled to active levels on day two (08 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Nov to 09 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Nov 076 Predicted 07 Nov-09 Nov 075/075/078 90 Day Mean 06 Nov 086
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Nov 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Nov 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov 007/008-016/020-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Nov to 09 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 15% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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