Viewing archive of Tuesday, 15 November 2016

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2016 Nov 15 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
15 Nov 2016	076	008
16 Nov 2016	076	007
17 Nov 2016	076	007

Bulletin

Solar X-ray flux remained below C level and was dominated by a B6.1 flare peaking at 00:35UT from NOAA region 2610. Both regions on disk, NOAA 2609 and 2610, seem to be stable or declining. X-ray flux is expected to remain below C-level. A filament eruption was recorded from near disk centre (N15E15) around 14:00UT as seen in SDO/AIA 304 images, associated also with a dimming in SDO/AIA 193 images. However, no Earth directed CME could be identified in coronagraph data. Although SoHO/LASCO suffers from a data gap around the time of the filament eruption, no indication of CME propagation is seen in the images following the data gap (from 19:24UT onwards). Proton flux values are at background values and expected to remain so. A positive polarity equatorial coronal hole is passing the central meridian today and is expected to become geoeffective from 2016-11-18 onwards.

Solar wind saw a further decline of the negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream influence. Solar wind has meanwhile gone down to 550 km/s. The magnetic field remained around 5nT with a fluctuating North-South component and the phi angle in the negative sector. A further return to nominal solar wind conditions is expected over the next days. From 2016-11-18 onwards an increase may be expected due to the positive polarity coronal hole passing the central meridian today. Based on its effect in previous rotation the influences are expected to be minor. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (both local K Dourbes and NOAA Kp 1-3) and expected to remain so over the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 038, based on 04 stations.

Solar indices for 14 Nov 2016

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	077
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	014
Estimated Ap	012
Estimated international sunspot number	033 - Based on 13 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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