Viewing archive of Thursday, 17 November 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Nov 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 322 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Nov,
19 Nov, 20 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 437 km/s at 17/1057Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
17/0240Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
16/2121Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 6414 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (18 Nov) and unsettled to active levels
on days two and three (19 Nov, 20 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Nov to 20 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Nov 079 Predicted 18 Nov-20 Nov 079/078/080 90 Day Mean 17 Nov 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Nov 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov 006/005-012/016-013/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov to 20 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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