Viewing archive of Saturday, 19 November 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Nov 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 324 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Nov 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (20
Nov, 21 Nov, 22 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 340 km/s at 18/2100Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
19/1343Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
19/1240Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 6652 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 Nov), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (21 Nov) and active to minor storm levels on day three
(22 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Nov to 22 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Nov 077 Predicted 20 Nov-22 Nov 076/078/082 90 Day Mean 19 Nov 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Nov 004/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov 012/015-008/008-025/040
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov to 22 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 15% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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