Viewing archive of Tuesday, 29 November 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Nov 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Nov 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
29/1723Z from Region 2615 (S08E51). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (30 Nov, 01 Dec, 02 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 547 km/s at 29/0344Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 28/2112Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
29/0939Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 18834 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (30 Nov) and quiet levels
on days two and three (01 Dec, 02 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Nov to 02 Dec
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Nov 086 Predicted 30 Nov-02 Dec 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 29 Nov 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Nov 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Nov 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec 008/008-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Nov to 02 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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