Viewing archive of Thursday, 15 December 2016

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2016 Dec 15 1259 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
15 Dec 2016	072	004
16 Dec 2016	070	014
17 Dec 2016	069	006

Bulletin

There are presently two numbered sunspot groups on the visible side of the solar disc, the newly emerged NOAA AR 2618, and NOAA AR 2617 which is rotating across the west solar limb. The only reported flare during last 24 hours was B2.5 flare from NOAA AR 2617, which peaked at 03:30 UT today. We expect solar activity to remain on the same low level, with very small probability for isolated C-class flare. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the last 24 hours. The solar wind speed is still decreasing and it presently amounts about 410 km/s, and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude remained at the same level of about 4nT. The fast solar wind associated with the small coronal holes which reached the central meridian in the morning of December 12 and 13 is expected to arrive at the Earth today and tomorrow, respectively. The geomagnetic conditions are presently quiet. We expect unsettled to active conditions starting later today, due to arrival of the fast solar wind.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 012, based on 17 stations.

Solar indices for 14 Dec 2016

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	072
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	004
Estimated Ap	003
Estimated international sunspot number	023 - Based on 22 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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