Viewing archive of Wednesday, 15 February 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Feb 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 46 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (16
Feb, 17 Feb, 18 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 315 km/s at 15/2013Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
15/2043Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
15/1730Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1016 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (16 Feb, 18
Feb) and quiet to active levels on day two (17 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Feb to 18 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Feb 075 Predicted 16 Feb-18 Feb 075/075/074 90 Day Mean 15 Feb 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Feb 005/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb 010/010-011/012-009/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb to 18 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 45% | 20% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Friday, 28 March 2025
X1.1 solar flare
Monday, 24 March 2025
Coronal hole faces Earth
Saturday, 22 March 2025
Strong G3 geomagnetic storm watch for 23 March
Latest forum messages
Unexplained proton activity 52AR4048 97Temporary Topic - Ongoing Solar Proton Events 14Unspecified geomagnetic activity 2188AR4046 156
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/03/28 | X1.1 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/04/01 | M2.5 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/03/27 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| February 2025 | 154.6 +17.6 |
| April 2025 | 147 -7.6 |
| Last 30 days | 129.8 -18.9 |