Viewing archive of Tuesday, 28 February 2017

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2017 Feb 28 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
28 Feb 2017	082	017
01 Mar 2017	083	018
02 Mar 2017	084	013

Bulletin

Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been low. Flaring has been at the B-class level. Active Region (AR) 2640 (Mcintosh class:Bxo; Mag.type:Beta) and AR 2641 (Mcintosh class:Cro; Mag.type:Beta) have been most active, producing all the B-class flares. AR 2638 has shown some evidence of flux emergence and cancellation in HMI magnetogram observations, which may increase flaring activity. No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected. Solar protons have remained at background levels over the past 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to remain low over the next 24 hours with a high probability of C-class flares and a low probability of M-class flares. The transequatorial extension of the negative polarity southern polar coronal hole is expected to become geoeffective around midnight today 28-Feb-2017. The solar wind speed has increased from 330 to 450 km/s over the past 24 hours. The total magnetic field strength has fluctuated between 2 nT and 8 nT. The Bz component has fluctuated between 7 and -4 nT, but has been positive most of the morning. Geomagnetic conditions ranged between Kp index 1-3 (NOAA) and local K index 1-4 (Dourbes) over the past 24 hours, with the slightly enhanced values occurring due to the negative Bz. A large negative polarity Southern polar coronal hole will be creating enhanced solar wind conditions over the coming days starting today around midnight (28-Feb-2017). As a consequence Geomagnetic conditions are expected vary from quiet to active.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 051, based on 17 stations.

Solar indices for 27 Feb 2017

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	082
AK Chambon La Forêt	020
AK Wingst	011
Estimated Ap	009
Estimated international sunspot number	045 - Based on 32 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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