Viewing archive of Thursday, 2 March 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Mar 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 61 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Mar 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (03
Mar, 04 Mar, 05 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 753 km/s at 02/0918Z. Total IMF
reached 6 nT at 02/0602Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 02/0556Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 22538 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (03 Mar) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (04 Mar, 05 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Mar to 05 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Mar 079 Predicted 03 Mar-05 Mar 079/078/078 90 Day Mean 02 Mar 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Mar 021/032 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Mar 026/034 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Mar-05 Mar 018/022-011/014-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Mar to 05 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 25% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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