Viewing archive of Monday, 20 March 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Mar 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 79 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Mar 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (21 Mar, 22 Mar, 23 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 333 km/s at 20/2033Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
20/1405Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
20/1501Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 459 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (21 Mar), quiet to active
levels on day two (22 Mar) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day
three (23 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Mar to 23 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Mar 073 Predicted 21 Mar-23 Mar 073/074/074 90 Day Mean 20 Mar 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Mar 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Mar 003/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Mar-23 Mar 008/008-009/012-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Mar to 23 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 30% | 60% |
All times in UTC
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