Viewing archive of Friday, 31 March 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Mar 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 90 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Mar 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
31/1737Z from Region 2645 (S10E01). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (01 Apr,
02 Apr, 03 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 771 km/s at 31/1103Z. Total IMF
reached 6 nT at 31/0323Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 31/0323Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 24539 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (01 Apr) and
unsettled to active levels on days two and three (02 Apr, 03 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Apr to 03 Apr
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Mar 091 Predicted 01 Apr-03 Apr 093/095/095 90 Day Mean 31 Mar 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Mar 018/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Mar 021/031 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Apr-03 Apr 019/025-019/022-014/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Apr to 03 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 30% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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