Viewing archive of Thursday, 13 April 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Apr 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 103 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Apr 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (14 Apr, 15
Apr) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on
day three (16 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 434 km/s at 13/1304Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
13/1841Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
13/1810Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2552 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (14 Apr, 16
Apr) and quiet to active levels on day two (15 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Apr to 16 Apr
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Apr 074 Predicted 14 Apr-16 Apr 075/075/085 90 Day Mean 13 Apr 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Apr 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Apr 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Apr-16 Apr 008/008-009/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Apr to 16 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 20% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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