Viewing archive of Monday, 17 April 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Apr 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 107 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Apr 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
17/0247Z. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (18 Apr, 19 Apr, 20 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 330 km/s at 17/1332Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
17/0439Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
17/0511Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1717 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (18 Apr) and
unsettled to active levels on days two and three (19 Apr, 20 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Apr to 20 Apr
| Class M | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Apr 075 Predicted 18 Apr-20 Apr 020/018/015 90 Day Mean 17 Apr 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Apr 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Apr 008/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Apr-20 Apr 016/020-013/018-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Apr to 20 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 50% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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