Viewing archive of Tuesday, 25 April 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Apr 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 115 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Apr 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (26
Apr, 27 Apr, 28 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 714 km/s at 25/0153Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 25/1820Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
25/1113Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 52302 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (26 Apr), quiet to
active levels on day two (27 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (28 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Apr to 28 Apr
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Apr 081 Predicted 26 Apr-28 Apr 081/081/082 90 Day Mean 25 Apr 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Apr 019/022 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Apr 015/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Apr-28 Apr 013/016-013/014-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Apr to 28 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 35% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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