Viewing archive of Thursday, 18 May 2017

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 May 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 138 Issued at 2200Z on 18 May 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (19 May, 20 May, 21 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 458 km/s at 17/2148Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 18/1717Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 18/0338Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 149 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to major storm levels on day one (19 May), active to minor storm levels on day two (20 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (21 May).
III. Event Probabilities 19 May to 21 May
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 May 072
  Predicted   19 May-21 May 072/072/072
  90 Day Mean        18 May 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 May  009/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 May  013/018
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 May-21 May  031/045-024/030-016/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 May to 21 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%40%20%
Minor storm35%20%05%
Major-severe storm15%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm20%15%10%

All times in UTC

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