Viewing archive of Thursday, 1 June 2017

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2017 Jun 01 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
01 Jun 2017	074	019
02 Jun 2017	075	026
03 Jun 2017	077	017

Bulletin

Solar activity has increased with the rotation of a new active region (Catania group 29, NOAA Active Region 2661) over the East limb which has produced several C flares over past 24 hours. The strongest was a C6.6. flare peaking at 1:43UT. Analysis of the complexity of this region will improve as it rotates further into view but meanwhile further flaring at C level should be anticipated from this region, with a small chance for M flares. The C6.6. flare was associated with an Eastbound CME visible in SoHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph images from 2:12UT onwards. It is narrow and directed well off the sun-Earth line so that it will not have any consequences on Earth. No other Earth directed CMEs have been observed in coronagraph data. The proton flux levels were at background values, and are expected to remain so.

Solar wind dropped to nominal values of 380 km/s at the start of the period and has been decreasing to 320 km/s currently. Total magnetic field remained in the 6-8nT range throughout most of the period, with a decrease to around the 3nT level after 9:00UT. Bz was variable and the phi angle was steadily in the positive sector until the drop of the total magnetic field. Solar wind may see a renewed enhancement associated to the high speed stream from the equatorial coronal hole later today or tomorrow. Geomagnetic conditions were mainly quiet (local K Dourbes and NOAA Kp 0-2) with only two isolated periods of K=3 at Dourbes. Geomagnetic conditions could increase over the next 24-48 hours to active levels with the anticipated enhancements due to the high speed stream.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 014, based on 26 stations.

Solar indices for 31 May 2017

Wolf number Catania	000
10cm solar flux	074
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	005
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	/// - Based on /// stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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