Viewing archive of Monday, 3 July 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Jul 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 184 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jul 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
03/1615Z. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (04 Jul, 05 Jul, 06 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 475 km/s at 02/2132Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 02/2132Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
03/0612Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (04 Jul,
05 Jul, 06 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jul to 06 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jul 072 Predicted 04 Jul-06 Jul 073/071/071 90 Day Mean 03 Jul 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jul 020/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jul 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jul-06 Jul 010/011-007/007-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jul to 06 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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