Viewing archive of Friday, 14 July 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Jul 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jul 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
14/0209Z from Region 2665 (S06W43). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Jul, 16 Jul,
17 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 391 km/s at 13/2148Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
14/1630Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
14/0215Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 13 pfu at 14/1055Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 942 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Jul), quiet to major
storm levels on day two (16 Jul) and active to major storm levels on day
three (17 Jul). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (15
Jul), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (16 Jul) and have a
chance of crossing threshold on day three (17 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jul to 17 Jul
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 75% | 50% | 30% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jul 094 Predicted 15 Jul-17 Jul 092/092/092 90 Day Mean 14 Jul 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jul 005/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jul 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul 014/015-019/035-028/045
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul to 17 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 35% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 20% | 25% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 75% | 79% |
All times in UTC
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