Viewing archive of Friday, 28 July 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Jul 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 209 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jul 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on day one (29 Jul) and expected to be very low with a chance for a
C-class flares on day two (30 Jul) and expected to be very low with a
chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on
day three (31 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 492 km/s at 28/1110Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 27/2119Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
27/2123Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 14317 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (29 Jul, 30 Jul) and quiet to
active levels on day three (31 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Jul to 31 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Jul 070 Predicted 29 Jul-31 Jul 072/080/082 90 Day Mean 28 Jul 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jul 008/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jul 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jul-31 Jul 005/005-006/005-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jul to 31 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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