Viewing archive of Sunday, 10 September 2017

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Sep 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 253 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Sep 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X8 event observed at 10/1606Z from old Region 2673 (S09, L=119). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on day one (11 Sep) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on day two (12 Sep) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day three (13 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 560 km/s at 10/1015Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 10/1935Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 10/2020Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1038 pfu at 10/1845Z. Protons greater than 100 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 54 pfu at 10/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7875 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 Sep), quiet to active levels on day two (12 Sep) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (13 Sep). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (11 Sep), are expected to cross threshold on day two (12 Sep) and are likely to cross threshold on day three (13 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Sep to 13 Sep
Class M80%10%01%
Class X50%01%01%
Proton99%95%65%
PCAFred
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Sep 100
  Predicted   11 Sep-13 Sep 085/083/081
  90 Day Mean        10 Sep 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Sep  006/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Sep  005/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep  007/007-010/012-020/030

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Sep to 13 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%25%35%
Minor storm05%10%25%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm20%30%25%
Major-severe storm20%40%60%

All times in UTC

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