Viewing archive of Tuesday, 26 September 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Sep 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 269 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Sep 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
26/0234Z from Region 2683 (N12E60). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (27 Sep, 28 Sep, 29 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 346 km/s at 25/2102Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 115 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (27 Sep), active to
major storm levels on day two (28 Sep) and unsettled to active levels on
day three (29 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Sep to 29 Sep
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Sep 091 Predicted 27 Sep-29 Sep 091/091/091 90 Day Mean 26 Sep 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Sep 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Sep 006/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Sep-29 Sep 017/028-024/032-020/024
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Sep to 29 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 40% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 80% | 60% |
All times in UTC
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