Viewing archive of Thursday, 16 November 2017

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2017 Nov 16 1351 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
16 Nov 2017	075	015
17 Nov 2017	076	015
18 Nov 2017	075	010

Bulletin

The only active region observed on the visible side of the solar disc, Catania sunspot group 63 (NOAA AR 2687), maintains beta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. However, Catania sunspot group 63 was source of only one low B-class flare and no C-class flares during last 24 hours. We expect such a low solar activity to persist in the coming hours. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the last 24 hours, and the solar protons remained at background level.

The solar wind speed was showing slow but constant increase since mid-day of November 15 (simultaneously with temperature increase and density decrease), and it now amounts about 500 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is presently about 5 nT, however longer intervals of its elevated value (up to 15 nT) were reported in the afternoon of November 15. All this indicates arrival of the fast solar wind associated with the low latitude extend of the northern polar corona hole (reached central meridian on November 11). The arrival of this fast flow induced disturbed geomagnetic conditions (local station at Dourbes reported intervals of K=4 yesterday evening and NOAA reported intervals of Kp=4 around midnight yesterday and early morning today). The fast flow associated with the low latitude extension of the southern polar coronal hole (reached central meridian in the late evening of November 13) is expected to arrive at the Earth tomorrow. The geomagnetic conditions are presently unsettled to active due to the influence of the fast solar wind. We expect unsettled to active conditions in the coming hours and also tomorrow evening (due to arrival of the fast solar wind associated with the low latitude extent of the southern polar coronal hole).

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 017, based on 12 stations.

Solar indices for 15 Nov 2017

Wolf number Catania	015
10cm solar flux	074
AK Chambon La Forêt	026
AK Wingst	013
Estimated Ap	014
Estimated international sunspot number	014 - Based on 19 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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