Viewing archive of Thursday, 25 January 2018

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Jan 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 25 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (26 Jan, 27 Jan, 28 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 458 km/s at 25/1326Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 24/2116Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 25/0024Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 137 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (26 Jan, 27 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (28 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Jan to 28 Jan
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Jan 070
  Predicted   26 Jan-28 Jan 070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        25 Jan 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jan  006/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Jan  009/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan  007/008-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jan to 28 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%15%
Minor storm25%25%20%
Major-severe storm20%20%15%

All times in UTC

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